MMG Weekly 11/15/17

Guy R. Vetrano NMLS# 183357
Senior Loan Officer
Bay Equity Home Loans
Phone: 480.500.6000 x 6017
Mobile: 602-692-7196
gvetrano@bayeq.com
www.vetranoteam.com

In This Issue
Last Week in Review: Home prices surged, while Consumer Sentiment stayed strong.

Forecast for the Week: A deluge of economic data will vie for the spotlight.

View: Make your voicemail messages move business relationships forward.


Last Week in Review
“A little dancing and some sentiment to put your mind at ease.” Lou Reed. Home prices continued to surge, and consumers have happy feet over employment and wage prospects.

Data analytics firm CoreLogic reported that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, surged by 7 percent in September 2017 compared to September 2016. Month over month, sales were up 0.9 percent in September from August. Low inventories continue to be the catalyst driving higher home prices. Looking ahead, prices are expected to rise 4.7 percent from September 2017 to September 2018.

Although the Consumer Sentiment Index declined slightly in early November, it remained at its second highest level since January with a preliminary reading of 97.8, per the University of Michigan report. An improving labor market was spontaneously mentioned by a record number of consumers, and anticipated wage gains recorded their highest two-month level in a decade. These favorable trends were countered by expectations that inflation and interest rates will increase during the year ahead.

In a week light on economic data, headlines were dominated by rising tensions in the Middle East, which pushed oil prices to two-year highs, and tax reform proposals out of Washington, which kept investors on guard.

Record-high Stock prices weighed on Bond prices throughout the week, though home loan rates remained just above all-time lows.

If you or someone you know has questions about home financing or home loan rates please contact me. I’d be happy to help.


Forecast for the Week
A deluge of economic data will vie for the spotlight.
  • Inflation data from the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
  • The closely watched Retail Sales report also will be delivered on Wednesday.
  • Regional manufacturing numbers from the Empire State Index will be released on Wednesday followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.
  • As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday.
  • Finally, Building Permits and Housing Starts round out the week on Friday.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bond prices were no stranger to volatility recently.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 10, 2017)
Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…
4 Ways to Leave Better Voicemails

Improving voicemail skills can enhance efficiency, increase callbacks, and help you make a great impression on clients and colleagues. Here are four ways to leave a better message at the beep.

Ramble less. Alleviate verbal meandering by writing out a quick script or outline to help you stay on point. Recipients will appreciate your concise message.

Inspire action. A clear call to action is key for higher callback ratios. Don’t attempt to close a deal by voicemail, but always try to advance a relationship or transaction. For example: “I’ve got a quick question about item three on your list of requirements, so can you please give me a call back.” Or, “In your last email, did you mean to say you preferred option X or option Y?”

Speak slowly and clearly. Slowing down and enunciating will make your audio easier to understand for listeners and improve translation for those who receive text previews of voicemail messages, which is becoming more common.

Stay present. Avoid referencing previous calls or that you haven’t yet “heard back” from someone. This may come off as finger pointing and make someone feel defensive. Instead, as outlined above, indicate why it’s important for someone to return your call due to a specific reason.

Implement these easy-to-use tips and improve your voicemails today!

Source: HubSpot

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 13 – November 17
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. November 14
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Oct
NA
0.4%
Moderate
Tue. November 14
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Oct
NA
0.4%
Moderate
Wed. November 15
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Oct
NA
1.0%
HIGH
Wed. November 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Nov
NA
30.2
Moderate
Wed. November 15
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Oct
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Wed. November 15
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Oct
NA
0.5%
HIGH
Wed. November 15
08:30
Retail Sales
Oct
NA
1.6%
HIGH
Thu. November 16
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
11/11
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. November 16
08:30
Philadelphia Fed Index
Nov
NA
27.9
HIGH
Fri. November 17
08:30
Building Permits
Oct
NA
1215K
Moderate
Fri. November 17
08:30
Housing Starts
Oct
NA
1127K
Moderate
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As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
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